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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


12 September 2012

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - September 2012USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - September 2012


USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

Late-Season U.S. Soybean Exports Surge Despite Record Prices

Late-season 2011/12 U.S. soybean exports continued to race along at a record pace. Exports for the 5 months ending in August are expected to approach 10 million tons, 60 percent above the 10-year average. Much of this strength can be attributed to the impact of the South American drought on exportable supplies. Higher prices do not appear to have had much impact on slowing purchases, particularly by China. Instead, dwindling supplies in Brazil, evidenced by a precipitous drop in their August exports, has led importers to increase purchases from the United States.

With a new crop on the horizon, U.S. soybeans have remained price-competitive against shrinking South American supplies. U.S. sales are expected to remain strong until either constrained by depleted supplies and/or the arrival of South American new crop soybeans in early 2013.

OVERVIEW

Global 2012/13 soybean production is reduced in response to yield losses in the United States and Ukraine. Global trade is lowered. Global import demand for soybean meal and oil are virtually unchanged. The U.S. season average farm price is forecast at a record.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in August averaged $661 per ton, up $17 from last month. Strong demand for crush and exports have boosted price to a record.

As of the week-ending August 30, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 24.6 million tons, compared to 25.6 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 38.8 million tons, compared to 42.2 million for the same period last year.

2012/13 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • U.S. soybean exports are lowered 1.5 million tons to 28.7 million on reduced supplies.
  • Brazil’s soybean exports are raised 1.5 million tons to 39.1 million on expected strong demand and less competition from the United States.
  • Ukraine’s soybean exports are reduced 400,000 tons to 1.7 million on lower exportable supplies.
  • Canada’s rapeseed exports are down 400,000 tons to 8.3 million following a large drop in production.
  • Brazil’s soybean meal exports are up 645,000 tons to 14.5 million as forecast lower prices help boost demand.

2011/12 TRADE CHANGES

  • U.S. soybean exports are up 272,000 tons to 37.0 million on strong late season sales.
  • China’s soybean imports are raised 500,000 tons to 58.0 million reflecting stronger late season purchases.
  • Brazil’s soybean exports are lowered 900,000 tons to 35.8 million in response to limited exportable supplies.

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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